How to Fill the Other Half of the Train?

Today it was announced that Northern Ireland Railways operates its train service with a capacity averaging 50%, or the equivalent to 257 000 empty seats per week. The figures were taken from an average week in 2007.

Which Line Performed Best?

• Londonderry Line - 70%
• Portadown Line - 50%
• Bangor Line - 36%
• Cross-Border Rail Service - 35%

Northern Ireland has one of the lowest uses of public transport, at half the UK average, however since 2001, NIR has seen a 50% increase in passenger numbers, with a 23% increase in the last two years. A considerable achievement, with factors including new rolling stock, and a faster, more efficient service. In comparison to other cities, a train every half-an-hour (off-peak), city-to-city may be a factor reducing the use of the service.

If the trains were full, it would be equivalent to reducing 156 707 car journeys a week, or 8.15m a year in Northern Ireland. Unfortunately supply and demand pricing in the public transport sector is not correlated with train fare pricing. Fare reduction often leads to increased pressure at peak periods, with minor traffic increases in off-peak services. This could reduce CO2 emissions by in excess of 15 000 tonnes annually based on small cars emitting 99gCO2/km.

How Much Can I Save?
Following on from my attempt last month to quantify the annual savings by using public transport, Translink have came up with their own figures below. Taking several typical Belfast commuter routes, Translink compared the total cost by car (AA ‘cost per mile’ data, plus parking charges) against the cost of the public transport option. In each case, commuters fare much better with public transport, with big savings to be made in the course of a year:

• Antrim Road to Belfast City Centre by Metro – save £1532.70 per working year (10 months)
• Newtownabbey to Belfast City Centre by Metro – save £2510.30 per working year
• Lisburn to Belfast City Centre by NI Railways – save £2274.30 per working year
• Carrickfergus to Belfast City Centre by NI Railways – save £2666.20 per working year
• Bangor to Belfast City Centre by NI Railways – save £2572.10 per working year
• Larne to Belfast City Centre by Ulsterbus – save £3748.50 per working year
• Magherafelt to Belfast City Centre by Ulsterbus – save £3962.70 per working year

What About the Future Rise in Fuel Tax?
An increase in fuel taxes is often connected with the hypothesis of a triple dividend: Apart from the modal-shift-effect, which relieves the environment as well as the infrastructure, and the fiscal effect, which should increase the public revenue, the movement of passengers to public transport systems should decrease its deficit. However, this calculation fails because higher fuel prices increase peak-hour transit use but not leisure or off-peak transit. But the typical attribute of peak traffic is above-average marginal costs and below average revenues. Therefore, higher fuel taxes will increase public transports deficit rather than decrease it. The fiscal lucrativeness of higher fuel taxes will be significantly lower than is often expected.

How Can NIR Fill the Other Half of the Train?

• With the continued increase in oil prices, over the last year there has been a 2% reduction in vehicle miles travelled according to the AA, as the price continues to rise, it has already been shown to affect driving habits, decreasing miles travelled, travelling at off-peak times, walking shorter journeys, driving in a more fuel efficient way. Whilst habits change it does also price those on the lowest incomes out of cars.
  
  
• Implementation of Park & Ride schemes for cars and bikes, have also contributed to the success in previous years. Avoiding city centre parking charges and congestion entering the city. These need to be developed further to reduce the negative impact of parking problems at restricted space sites.
  
  
• Could the next step in helping people get to work be implementation of Green Journey Planners, simply Translink could offer outreach to companies initially in the city centre of Belfast. Offering to look at how each individual travels to work, how much this costs them (in time and money), and a greener and maybe shorter alternative, detailing the annual savings (again in time and money).
  
  
• Reducing the cost of travel, or removing the cost altogether, through government funded schemes. Trialling this in the outset with a free travel day, to see how this affects passenger numbers. Cost could be fractionally offset with advertising, similar to other international transit systems, such as the London Underground or Hong Kong MTR. Long-term, higher footfalls, could lead to increased property rental values.
  
  
• Introduction of simple stored value card such as the octopus or oyster card to enable a simple straight forward journey, reducing staffing needs, all pricing structures reduced to lowest possible fare, time specific pricing. Multi use, in conjunction with bus system.
  

If you have any ideas on how Translink can increase bums in seats, then let them know.