Effects of Climate Change on a Local Level

Photography: Peter Sandeman of 3SixtyCreative

A major report published today by the National Trust, "Shifting Shores: Living with a Changing Coastline" (PDF) describes how three of its iconic coastal properties in Northern Ireland are at risk from coastal erosion and flooding over the coming century.

The research was commissioned by the Trust and undertaken by leading coastal experts from Queen’s University and the University of Ulster. Their research focused on the Giant’s Causeway, north-east Strangford Lough and Murlough National Nature Reserve.

Key findings include:

• The Giant’s Causeway (an UNESCO World Heritage Site) is likely to experience increased storminess, with a greater area of the Causeway 40,000 interlocking basalt columns washed by waves by 2050, while by 2100 access to parts of the Causeway could be more difficult, particularly in winter.
  
  
• At north-east Strangford Lough, sea level rise of up to 25cm is predicted by 2050, and possibly by up to 1 metre by 2100. This would result in significant loss of feeding and nesting grounds for the Lough’s birdlife, such as Brent geese who migrate annual and graze on the eel grass. Increased winter storms would result in sea walls being overtopped more often and undefended areas of coast experiencing greater erosion.
  
  
• At Murlough National Nature Reserve it is possible that between 50 and 400 metres of dunes could be eroded away, while tidal and storm flooding could reach one metre higher than present day extremes.
  
  

"Northern Ireland’s coastline will be a changing, and indeed challenging, environment in the 21st century. The National Trust, and many other bodies, must prepare now to meet the uncertain challenges ahead."
Professor Julian Orford, Queen’s University, Belfast

"Because the National Trust cares for so many very special places, it is essential that we invest in this kind of research, to help us to understand how climate change may affect our properties in the future. Significantly, this report also highlights the challenges which will be important for all of us – government, landowners, coastal communities – to begin to consider now and to plan for in the future. Shifting Shores is a major contribution by the National Trust to the growing debate about climate change. In particular it provides key information about how climate change may affect us here in Northern Ireland. The key challenges which we in the Trust believe it is essential to address now include the need for more detailed coastal data and mapping of the whole Northern Ireland coastline. This is needed urgently, and government must make this a priority. Our planning system, and in particular development plans and planning policy statements must take predicted coastal change into account, to ensure coastal landscapes are adequately protected in the future"

Hilary McGrady, Director for Northern Ireland, National Trust

The report outlines key climate chane impacts on the Giant's Causeway as;

• The Giant's Causeway World Heritage Site is likely to experience increased winter wetness; drier summers; more frequent and longer-lasting storms with associated storm surges; and as part of the rising sea-level, higher-reaching extreme flood levels.
  
  
• These conditions will increase erosion and have an impact on the habitats on the site, such as coastal saltmarsh and coastal vegetated shingle which are of European significance. Particular plants at risk would include oysterplant and Scot's Lovage while of the invertebrates likely to be affected the most notable is the tiny narrow mouthed whorl snail, which is found in Northern Ireland only at the Giant's Causeway.
  
  
• In the short-term (2020s) there will be an increasing threat of storms and adverse weather conditions. This will require ever more rigorous hazard management, especially in relation to access to the cliff top.
  
  
• In the medium to longer term (2050s - 2080s), slope instability and cliff retreat may be likely. Realignment of the cliff top path may have to be considered.
  
  
• Wetter winters and greater frequency and intensity of rainfall would result in increasing risks of slope instability or failure. Past major slips may be reactivated. In this scenario, the long term viability of the existing road to the Causeway Stones would need to be reviewed.
  
  
• In the medium-term rising sea level and greater peak surges are likely to significantly increase the area of Causeway stones washed by waves.
  
  
• In the longer term (2080s to 2100) this would continue to increase, with the possible result that there may be periods when access to the stones would be considerably more difficult. The Grand Causeway could experience considerable erosion, while parts of the Middle and Little Causeways could be under water for periods of the winter.
  

In Northern Ireland no-one lives more than 35 miles from the coast, and with the Giants' Causeway defined as one of only three heritage sites in the British Isles it is seen by many as a national treasure. The latest report from three highly respected institutions will allow individuals on a local level to quantify the impacts climate change could have, and the implications this could have on the environment, society and economy. The report also hints on potential solutions that could help to stave off the inevitable.